Hypothesis

[essentialsaltes]

The appeals court decision on prop 8 helped to squirt Santorum into prominence.

One of the states was Colorado, and the legal decision made a great deal of reference to Romer v Evans, which resulted from Colorado's Amendment 2. Then again Colorado was his narrowest margin of victory 40/35 over Romney.

Also interesting that no delegates were on the line. MN and CO were caucus-y things, and the MO primary was scheduled too early to count, according to the party's ruleses.

Comments

[mountain-hiker.livejournal.com]

Just goes to prove what I've known all along about the Republicans here in Colorado: They're all batshit insane. I rallied feverishly against Amendment 2 when that bullshit appeared on the ballot here. Good thing now, though, is that civil unions for same-sex couples may be up for a vote this November.

[ian-tiberius.livejournal.com]

That did occur to me as well, although I think the idea that basing the decision on "Romer v. Evans" had special significance in Colorado gives voters way, way too much credit for understanding and analyzing written decisions for more than the bottom line. Still, I do think that a little gay panic on the morning of the vote might have boosted culture warrior Santorum.

Also, it's not quite accurate to say that no delegates were on the line. As I understand it, in addition to the straw polls which made headlines, the caucuses also elect the representatives to the county assemblies that *will* choose the real delegates. (in MN and CO. The MO primary will be ignored in favor of caucuses that take place later on.)

[essentialsaltes.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I doubt they clued off of "Romer", but as you suggest, I'm sure many there remember Amendment 2 and what happened, and what the Prop 8 ruling just did.

Serves me right for believing the MSM on the delgate thing. I am going to start chanting "brokered convention" whenever primary results are announced. Not that it will do any good. Though IIRC, the Repubs changed things to make delegates proportional.... surely that makes a brokered convention more likely?

[ian-tiberius.livejournal.com]

Some of the states have switched to proportional delegates, but not all. I was reading about this back when Newt looked like he was doing really well; some people were pointing out that a lot of the Southern states went to proportional representation, which works against candidates expected to do well in the South.

Wikipedia (naturally) the state-by-state breakdown.

Looks like most states are proportional, but even those aren't necessarily quite in proportion to the actual vote count (every state sets its own rules, and I believe a lot of them award extra delegates to the winner.

And a brokered convention would push just about every happy button I have, from "political science major who's never gotten to observe a brokered convention" to "Republicans are self-immolating on live TV."