Time running out for your free million dollars

[essentialsaltes]

The Randi JREF Challenge ends on March 6th, 2010.

There's been a lot of dismay over the announcement, and I guess I share it. The only bright spot is that it will allow the JREF to spend some money to pursue its educational goals. But what are those goals, and how can they actually be achieved?

Anyway, I hope that some similar (and reliable) group decides to initiate its own challenge along similar lines. I still have in my wallet my "2000 Club" membership card certifying that "the bearer ... has pledged to pay an agreed sum to any "psychic" who will win the JREF Challenge."

The $1 million gift from an anonymous donor made my $1,000 pledge superfluous, but my dough is still available to a successor challenge. I don't remember how large the 2000 Club total got before the million donation, but it was several hundred thousand dollars. Now's the time for CSI or Shermy to step in.

Comments

[essentialsaltes.livejournal.com]

The difficulty I see with presidential predictions is that there are plenty of non-paranormal methods of choosing winners. I mean, the polls leading up to the Iowa caucuses gave the correct winners. Plenty of people are already offering predictions on the nominees and ultimate victor in the general election. No doubt, some of them are making predictions (using entirely 'ordinary' powers) that will turn out to be correct. It would be difficult to determine what the probabilities are. How can you tell if one is doing 'better than chance' at choosing winners?

The standard tests of astrology typically involve matching birth data to personality profiles of unknown subjects. Probably something could also be devised along the lines of matching unknowns' birth data to other outcomes, such as "good or bad fortune over the next week/month/whatever". I don't know if that's helpful.

[ladyeuthanasia.livejournal.com]

I totally agree. (Although, I guess I'm looking at very different polls. Which ones did you see? I've been following www.pollingreport2008.com.)

I think it's more fun to do something along the lines of personal archeology. I once had a friend who was being very evasive about what had been happening in her life. I looked at her chart and noticed there was a particular day that where "the whole world upended." And because it was in Scorpio, I guess it was something sexual and secretive. When I told her what I saw in her chart and asked her what happened that day, she freaked out and spilled the beans: it was the day an extra-marital relationship started.

So, a little context helps, definitely. (My very real-world, non-mystical intuition was on target that something was wrong.) But I wonder if something like that can't be crafted into a test like that "aura reading" thing.

[essentialsaltes.livejournal.com]

But I wonder if something like that can't be crafted into a test like that "aura reading" thing.

Certainly possible. Give them a buzz and see what they say.

[ladyeuthanasia.livejournal.com]

That's not a bad idea. And it would give me the opportunity to test on others some ideas I've had of late. Let me think on it. The only problem I foresee is that if I hit on something significant like I did with my friend, that person might not want to be forthcoming. I've had that happen with clients who, after the fact, admitted there had been sexual abuse, violence or some other trauma I'd pinpointed. It's risky getting elbow deep in stuff like that.

Hey, you didn't tell me where you're getting your caucus/primary polls from. I'm curious now about New Hampshire. :D

[essentialsaltes.livejournal.com]

Hey, you didn't tell me where you're getting your caucus/primary polls from.

I dunno, I just watch the news. In this case, I just googled Iowa polls and got this as the first hit: "Huckabee, Obama forge leads in final Iowa Poll"

[ladyeuthanasia.livejournal.com]

Ah. I think my problem is that I rarely read American news outlets. Gee, maybe I should rethink that policy for the election. Ya think? ;)